From Fragility to Resilience: The Future of ECOWAS and the Imperative for Regional Transformation

A Vision Rooted in Collective Survival

When the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was created in 1975 through the Treaty of Lagos, it was driven by an ambitious vision: to unite the economies, peoples, and destinies of fifteen newly independent countries, many of which had emerged from colonialism with weak institutions, struggling economies, and uncertain political futures. The architects of ECOWAS believed that regional integration, economic, political, and human could foster stability, prosperity, and peace in a part of the world that had long suffered from artificial divisions and external exploitation.

Delivering Tangible Gains…

The founding objectives of ECOWAS went far beyond trade. The bloc was tasked with promoting the free movement of people and goods, building shared infrastructure, harmonizing development policies, and, critically, preventing violent conflict. Over time, its role expanded to include peacekeeping and democracy promotion, notably through its military wing, the ECOWAS Monitoring Group (ECOMOG), which intervened in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Côte d’Ivoire during the turbulent 1990’s and early 2000’s.

Similarly, its diplomatic intervention in The Gambia in 2017 is another milestone: ECOWAS effectively compelled President Jammeh to respect election results and step down peacefully. Overall, the organization can point to important achievements. The Protocol on Free Movement has allowed millions to work and trade across borders. Infrastructure projects such as the Abidjan-Lagos corridor improved regional commerce. And in some cases, ECOWAS diplomatic efforts have defused political tensions or prevented unconstitutional changes of power (Yabi, 2010).

…But Enduring Integration Remains Elusive

Yet the organization’s shortcomings have become increasingly evident. Despite decades of effort, intra-regional trade within ECOWAS remains underdeveloped, accounting for only 12–15% of total trade among member states, a figure far below comparable regional blocs such as the European Union, where intra-regional trade exceeds 60% (World Bank, 2019; UNCTAD, 2020). Non-tariff barriers, poor transport infrastructure, and policy fragmentation continue to impede the creation of a truly integrated West African market (AfDB, 2022). Political interventions have often been viewed as biased or heavy-handed, particularly in cases like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, countries where military-led governments have broken openly with the bloc. ECOWAS’s authority has been openly defied, its sanctions regimes questioned, and its credibility among ordinary West Africans diminished.  Moreover, frustration has deepened in parts of the Sahel, where surveys indicate that confidence in the organization’s legitimacy has significantly eroded, with some reports suggesting that over 60% of respondents view its role with skepticism (Donkor, 2021).

Institutional Fracture: The Sahel Withdrawals

January 2024 marked a watershed moment: three major Sahelian members (Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso) withdrew to establish the Alliance des États du Sahel. This departure symbolizes not only a political rupture but the deepening of regional fragmentation. ECOWAS now confronts a daunting existential choice: to persist as a nominal community or to reinvent itself through bold structural reform. For the truth is unavoidable: ECOWAS’s approach has become reactive waiting to intervene once crises flare up, instead of addressing what’s causing them. Sanctions, emergency summits, and political ultimatums are tools of last resort, not of prevention. As Gilles Yabi, Director of the think tank WATHI, has bluntly put it: “The real problem is that the decisions taken by ECOWAS are not always implemented by its own member states” (Yabi, FES, 2010). Indeed, Development institutions such as the African Development Bank warn that persistent fragility significantly constrains economic growth and investment in West Africa, with some analyses suggesting potential losses of up to two percentage points of GDP annually in the most affected contexts (AfDB, 2022; World Bank, 2018). This is why ECOWAS must change course.

Toward a New Compact for Regional Resilience

To remain credible and useful for the next fifty years, the organization needs to embrace what could be called a New Compact for Stability and Development: a comprehensive regional approach that blends diplomacy with infrastructure, investment with trust-building, security with economic inclusion. This could take shape through the following four strategic transformations:

1. Establish a Regional Fragility and Resilience Fund

Peace is expensive. But instability costs far more. To make a real difference in fragile zones (from Niger’s Tillabéri to Guinea’s Forest Region), ECOWAS needs to stop relying on ad hoc, slow-moving donor funds. Instead, the creation of a dedicated Regional Fragility and Resilience Fund, co-financed by ECOWAS, its development bank (EBID), and international partners, could provide sustained, fast-disbursing resources to support local peace economies. This is not charity. It is a strategic necessity. Such a fund could pay for irrigation schemes, youth employment programs, mobile courts, and grassroots peace infrastructures (GIZ, 2024). If the G5 Sahel Joint Force could raise €414 million for security operations (EU, 2018), ECOWAS can and must mobilize an equal or greater sum for development, which remains the only long-term guarantee of security.

2. Deploy a Development Diplomacy Corps

But money alone is not enough. ECOWAS’s diplomacy needs to change, too.

At present, its envoys often shuttle between presidential palaces and capital city ministries. Yet real fragility grows in neglected rural districts, contested towns, and displacement camps places far from official power. A new Development Diplomacy Corps, trained in governance reform, conflict resolution, and economic coordination could engage directly with these forgotten zones. As the World Bank’s Pathways for Peace report notes, every $1 invested in prevention saves $16 in crisis response (WB, 2018). If ECOWAS wants to stop fighting fires, it must put development, not emergency summits on the front line (WB, 2019).

3. Reorient EBID Toward Fragility-Sensitive Investment

The ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID) remains underused where it is most needed. Today, only about 15% of its lending portfolio targets fragile areas—an unacceptably low share, given the region’s vulnerability. A reoriented EBID could introduce a fragility index for project selection, ensuring that feeder roads, solar mini-grids, health posts, and post-conflict reintegration schemes get priority funding (ECOWAS, 2025). Moreover, linking these investments directly to peace operations such as programs for demobilized fighters would connect economic growth with political stability (African Business, 2024).

4. Earn Trust through Public Engagement and Scorecards

Ultimately, legitimacy, not just money or military force will determine ECOWAS’s future. The bloc must reach out to its citizens and make itself accountable. A simple but transformative idea would be to publish an Annual Fragile States Scorecard, modeled after the African Peer Review Mechanism. This scorecard would track, publicly and transparently, progress (or failure) on peace agreements, aid delivery, and citizen inclusion, especially of youth and women. This is not about shaming ECOWAS; it is about empowering people to see what is promised, what is delivered, and what is missing. As Yabi reminds us: “Regional cooperation is only as effective as the trust invested in it by people” (WATHI, 2025). Without public confidence, no regional project can endure.

Conclusion: The Next Fifty Years Demand Courageous Leadership

The departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS is a warning bell. For five decades, ECOWAS has been one of Africa’s boldest experiments in regional unity. Its survival, and its relevance, now depend on whether it can turn this crisis into renewal. The choice is stark: cling to old ways, or reinvent itself as a citizen-driven, development-centered, and peace-minded organization. The road to 2075 will be long. But the first steps can be taken now: in local projects, quiet diplomacy, smarter investments. For in the end, peace is not built in conference rooms. It grows, slowly and uncertainly, in the fields, towns, and marketplaces where ordinary people live. And ECOWAS’s future, perhaps the region’s future rests in their hands.