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Access the complete body of work from The Source, featuring in-depth analysis, expert perspectives, and strategic commentary at the intersection of geopolitics, finance, and technology. Our archive is fully searchable and organized by topic, making it easy to find the insights most relevant to your interests.
Discover also our Word of the Day series — concise explorations of key terms and concepts that illuminate the evolving language of global strategy, policy, and markets.
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Somaliland’s road to independence: becoming a player or a piece of the game?
Few places in the world illustrate the gap between political reality and legal recognition quite like Somaliland. Situated in the northwestern corner of the Horn of Africa, this territory of five million people has spent over three decades building a functioning state that, on paper, does not exist. The story begins earlier. A former British protectorate, distinct from the Italian-administered south that would become Somalia, Somaliland gained independence in June 1960 and wa

Elia Calderazzi
Apr 98 min read


Backwardation
"Backwardation occurs when the futures price of an asset trades below the expected future spot price for that asset. A downward-sloping futures curve reflects this relationship, with shorter-dated futures contracts priced higher than longer-dated ones. Backwardation is less common for a futures curve. For futures tied to measures of volatility, backwardation can be a sign that concern about immediate risks is plaguing investors' minds. In commodity futures, backwardation can

The Source
Apr 41 min read


Interoperability
" At its core, interoperability is the ability of different systems, organizations, and nations to work together coherently, effectively, and efficiently. Within NATO, it encompasses far more than simply plugging in the same equipment or using compatible software. It means aligning doctrine, training, procedures, and culture across thirty-two diverse member nations — and trusted partners — to ensure collective military effectiveness. Interoperability effectiveness depends on

The Source
Mar 241 min read


Chokepoint
"Chokepoints play crucial roles and deserve careful consideration. This applies to various situations, ranging from individual circumstances to interactions among businesses, local and regional authorities, and especially rivalries between major powers. In the latter case, these involve the control of supply chains, access to markets, infrastructure, trade routes, strategic locations and military mobility. The bulk of global trade and supply flows pass through maritime routes

The Source
Mar 211 min read


The Alliance of the Sahel States: A Quest for Sovereignty
In 2023, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso agreed to form the Alliance of the Sahel States (AES). Originally a military alliance, the AES made plans for economic and political integration. However, serious challenges are hampering this project. All three countries face the same problems: an endangered sovereignty, economic stagnation, and socio-political uncertainty. In the face of these challenges, which the AES struggles to address, popular discontent has become louder. For the

Djamel Khaznadji
Mar 185 min read


Gaullism
" (...) "a French political movement during World War II led by Charles de Gaulle in opposition to the Vichy regime or a postwar French political movement led by Charles de Gaulle established offically in 1943”. The successors of the Gaullism ideas, who are called Gaullists mention the need for a strong economy and a stable society. They also take into account the idea of national interests, which mainly relates to the paradigm of realism. Realists more elaborate on the power

The Source
Mar 171 min read


Shelf Company
"A shelf company is a company that is already registered but has never traded or conducted business and holds no assets or liabilities. Essentially, the company is registered to sit on a ‘shelf’, waiting for someone to buy it. Buying a shelf company used to be the best way to quickly acquire a company without going through the time-consuming procedure of registering a new one. This article explains what shelf companies are, how they work, and why they are progressively becomi

The Source
Mar 111 min read


Strategic Ambiguity Is Quietly Ending But No One Wants to Admit It
For more than four decades, U.S. policy toward Taiwan, like other states, has relied on strategic ambiguity. Disseminating deliberate uncertainty over whether the United States would intervene militarily if China invaded Taiwan. The policy was designed to deter conflict from both sides: discouraging Beijing from using force while preventing Taipei from declaring formal independence under the assumption of guaranteed U.S. protection. Washington still insists this policy remain

Paula Thornton
Mar 115 min read


Armistice
"A military agreement suspending active hostilities between the belligerents. An armistice can be local (i.e., suspend operations in just one area) or general (i.e., suspend all operations). If the duration of the armistice is not defined, the belligerent Parties may resume operations at any time, subject to previous warning in accordance with the terms of the armistice. An armistice does not put an end to the state of war, which subsists with all its legal consequences. In c

The Source
Mar 91 min read


Peripheral Fault Lines: State Control and Fragmentation Risks in Iran
On Saturday, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran, eliminating high-value targets in an attempt to topple the regime that has been in place since 1979. While much of the discussion has centred around the legality of the action or the path to succession, one point is often neglected: how will a state so diverse find the common ground needed to take its next step? Looking at Iran mainly through the last fifty years risks missing how the system act

The Source
Mar 53 min read


Democratic Backsliding
"Democratic backsliding is a gradual process that occurs when democratically elected officials—particularly executives—intentionally weaken or dismantle core democratic institutions. These include the constitution, rule of law, civil and minority rights, the independence of the judiciary and the media, the separation of powers within government, and the competitiveness of elections. While the starting point for any case of backsliding is a democracy, the outcome is either an

The Source
Mar 41 min read


How China Uses Scam Hubs for Geopolitical Influence in Myanmar
Four years after Myanmar’s military coup, ethnic armed groups, resistance forces, and the junta are all competing for control of territory, resources, and political influence. Amid this ongoing instability, which has prompted the European Union and the United States to impose restrictive sanctions, Myanmar has become a focal point of China’s strategic interests. From brokering localized ceasefires to pressuring the junta over cross-border fraud centers targeting Chinese citiz

Lucile Guéguen
Mar 37 min read


War Risk Premium
"Marine war risk insurance provides protection against risks arising from war, conflict, terrorism, and piracy. It is a vital extension to standard marine insurance, especially for operators navigating high-risk or politically unstable regions. This type of insurance can apply to all types of marine operations—from single-vessel owners to large international fleets—and covers a wide range of vessels. (...) The Joint War Committee (JWC), a body of Lloyd’s and IUA underwriters,

The Source
Mar 21 min read


Cyber Nationalism Esports: The Pursuit of the “all-Chinese team”
Introduction Esports has shifted from a niche subculture into a global mass phenomenon where competition intersects with technology, entertainment, and national identity. Nowhere is this intersection more pronounced than in China, where competitive gaming has become a platform for expressing pride, cultural confidence, and geopolitical aspirations. In 2025, the Chinese esports market reached a revenue of ¥29.33 billion (approximately $4.02 billion), supported by an audience o

Kefang Yao
Feb 248 min read


Agflation
An increase in the price of food that occurs as a result of increased demand from human consumption and use as an alternative energy resource. While the competitive nature of retail supermarkets allows some of the effects of agflation to be absorbed, the price increases that agflation causes are largely passed on to the end consumer. The term is derived from a combination of the words "agriculture" and "inflation". Source: https://www.unescwa.org/sd-glossary/agflation

The Source
Feb 231 min read


Gunboat Diplomacy
"Gunboat diplomacy is difficult to define – a concept familiar to many yet amorphous in nature it defies a simple a priori definition. However, James Cable describes it as "the use or threat of limited naval force, otherwise than as an act of war, in order to secure advantage or to avert loss, either in furtherance of an international dispute or else against foreign nationals within the territory or the jurisdiction of their own state". Thus gunboat diplomacy is a form of coe

The Source
Feb 231 min read


Will Takaichi’s Stunning Snap Election Victory Push Sino-Japanese Relations to the Brink?
To the international community’s surprise, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in her high-stakes gamble of a snap election, successfully translating her immense popularity into a record-breaking majority for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the lower house of Japan’s parliament—the largest seat total since the party’s inception in 1955. Following this outright victory, Takaichi now possesses a strong mandate and an unusual degree of latitude t

Mengxi Yu
Feb 214 min read


Iran, China, and the Belt and Road Initiative (Part II)
IV. The JCPOA and Global Data Connectivity Iran’s 5G infrastructure development, like many other things Iranian, has been entangled in global geopolitics. After JCPOA (the Iranian Nuclear Deal) was signed in 2015, Iran was allowed to officially do business with the (Western) world again. To develop its 5G network, Iran developed a policy of relying on both the West and China. MTN Irancell, the second largest mobile operator in Iran, and Ericsson signed an agreement to develop

Mohammad Amin Nayebpour
Feb 185 min read


Iran, China, and the Belt and Road Initiative (Part I)
I. Iran, China, and the Global Data Network My goal in this essay is to investigate the role of Iran in China’s ‘Digital Silk Road’, which is the digital version of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The story of Sino-Iranian tech cooperation must be investigated in the larger context of the geopolitical and geoeconomic roles that the two countries are playing or claiming to play. This is especially crucial since those roles are primarily geared to challenge the global a

Mohammad Amin Nayebpour
Feb 178 min read


Proxy War
"I define proxy war as directing the use of force by a politically motivated, local actor to indirectly influence political affairs in the target state. (...) The term proxy war carries a lot of baggage. During the Cold War, the use of proxies allowed states to be far more adventurous in their efforts to influence world events and gain an advantage over their rivals. Small states on the periphery were often viewed as pawns in a much greater game, allowing the United States an

The Source
Feb 161 min read
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