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Access the complete body of work from The Source, featuring in-depth analysis, expert perspectives, and strategic commentary at the intersection of geopolitics, finance, and technology. Our archive is fully searchable and organized by topic, making it easy to find the insights most relevant to your interests.
Discover also our Word of the Day series — concise explorations of key terms and concepts that illuminate the evolving language of global strategy, policy, and markets.
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What Timor-Leste’s Accession Reveals About ASEAN’s Strategic Identity
“History is made,” declared Timor-Leste’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão in October 2025 during the signing ceremony marking the small country’s entry into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). For Timor-Leste, ASEAN membership celebrates the nation’s resilience and determination, 23 years after gaining independence from Indonesia and 14 years of negotiations with the organization. For ASEAN, it represents the continuing realization of a united regional community

Lucile Guéguen
Dec 4, 20258 min read


Incoterms
"Incoterms are a series of contractual provisions developed for the international trade in goods. They serve to standardize and expedite trade between companies in different countries. The Incoterms are recognized worldwide and are recommended by international organizations (UNCITRAL, UNECE, etc.), but do not have the status of a formal UN agreement. They are used to determine which party is responsible for the costs of transportation and insurance. Incoterms are components o

The Source
Dec 3, 20251 min read


Moldova Between Giants: A Small Economy in the EU–US–Russia Triangle
Moldova: a small landlocked state of less of 3 million people, squeezed between Romania and Ukraine, described as Europe’s poorest country. Despite its modest size, Moldova sits at the crossroads of some of the world’s most consequential power struggles. The country’s economy remains heavily burdened by debt, much of it linked to the import of Russian natural gas, while over half of its population experiences energy poverty. According to UNDP data, more than 60% of Moldovans

Sofia Muscato
Dec 2, 20255 min read


Autarky
" Autarky is the term used to describe a country or economy that operates independently. Autarky, in its most basic sense, means “self-sufficient,” though it’s almost always used in correlation with a political or economic system, mean ing that the entity – whatever it is – can operate and exist free of outside influence, support, or trade." Source: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/autarky/

The Source
Dec 1, 20251 min read


Space Economy
"The space economy encompasses all activities and resources that contribute to human progress through the exploration, research, understanding, management, and utilisation of space. The sector provides critical infrastructure on Earth, contributes fundamental scientific data for decision-making, and supports societal well-being. But challenges abound from the sustainability of the current use of space and the threat posed by space debris, to ethical implications of space expl

The Source
Nov 28, 20251 min read


Turning food into a geopolitical lever: crucial lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine
How can the EU foster long-term strategic autonomy of its food system? Europe often treats food security as a given. The EU discards over 58 million tonnes of food a year - about 130 kg per person - worth an estimated €132 billion. That abundance, however, can be misleading. The war in Ukraine, dependence on external inputs, and climate-driven harvest shocks have shown how quickly availability and prices can be weaponised. We need to rethink food security in terms of resilien

Antonio De Carluccio
Nov 26, 20258 min read


Extractivism
"In an attempt to arrive at a comprehensible definition, we will use the term extractivism to refer to those activities which remove large quantities of natural resources that are not processed (or processed only to a limited degree), especially for export. Extractivism is not limited to minerals or oil. Extractivism is also present in farming, forestry and even fishing." Source: https://www.tni.org/files/download/beyonddevelopment_extractivism.pdf

The Source
Nov 25, 20251 min read


American Initiatives to Address Mineral Dependencies through Offshore Undersea Mining
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order on deep-sea mining marks one of the most assertive steps yet toward reshaping America’s control over critical mineral supply chains. Presented as part of a broader effort to reduce dependence on China, the order directs U.S. agencies to accelerate offshore exploration and streamline commercial licensing for seabed mineral extraction. While framed as a move to bolster national resilience against China centric supply lines, the po

William-Henry Au
Nov 21, 20258 min read


Polycrisis
The concept of the polycrisis refers to a state where multiple crises intertwine, their causes and processes inextricably bound together to create compounded effects. The word polycrisis was popularised by Columbia University academic Adam Tooze, and in early 2023 the World Economic Forum followed suit by warning in its annual Global Risks Report that the world was on the brink of a polycrisis in relation to “shortages in natural resources such as food, water, and metals and

The Source
Nov 20, 20251 min read


80 Years of United Nations: Navigating Through Global Challenges
In 2025, the United Nations marks its 80th anniversary. Since its founding in 1945, the UN has represented the idea that global order could be based on cooperation, institutions, and law. Today, however, the challenges it faces (geopolitical rivalries, fragmentation of powers, and diverging national interests) raise questions about its effectiveness and centrality. It is therefore useful to examine how this system of governance developed, identify its limits at each stage, an

Mehdi Amghar
Nov 18, 20255 min read


Détente
D é tente refers to the process of thawing of relations between the United States and Russia between the late 1960s and early 1970s by resuming arms talks following events that had brought states to the brink of nuclear war. (...) In practical terms, détente led to formal agreements on arms control and the security of Europe. A clear sign that a détente was emerging was found in the signing of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1968. (...) The breakdown of détente in the

The Source
Nov 18, 20251 min read


China – US Busan Summit: A Trade Truce, For Now
On October 30th, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. Despite the exaggerated description by the Whitehouse as “massive victory” for American workers, as a result of the “trade and economic deal”. Beyond the hyperbole, the meeting can rather be best described as a one-year trade truce with a non-bonding agreement between both sides, as the talks yielded agreements on a narrow set of issues of concern, but with no major strategic breakthrough.

James Hammersley
Nov 13, 20255 min read


Ring-Fencing
In a regulatory context, the term can best be understood as legally deconstructing a firm in order to more optimally reallocate and reduce risk. So utilized, ring-fencing can help to protect public-benefit activities performed by private-sector firms, as well as to mitigate systemic risk and the too-big-to-fail problem inherent in large financial institutions. If not structured carefully, however, ring-fencing can inadvertently undermine efficiency and externalize costs. Sour

The Source
Nov 12, 20251 min read


Geopolitical Swing State
Geopolitical swing states are critical to the world economy and balance of power, but they don’t have the capacity by themselves to drive the global agenda, at least for now. However, as long as the tensions between the U.S. and China continue to get worse, they will have outsized abilities to navigate geopolitical competition and take advantage of and influence it. They know this and are consciously using that newfound power to shape the world order to more effectively serve

The Source
Nov 11, 20251 min read


Indonesia’s new capital: building Nusantara for security, sustainability, and regional influence
Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, is sinking at an alarming rate. Faced with overpopulation and failing infrastructure, it now holds the title of the world’s fastest-sinking city. In response, the Indonesian government announced in 2019 the construction of a new capital, Nusantara, in eastern Borneo. Could relocating its capital transform Indonesia’s role in Southeast Asia and beyond? With over 17,500 islands, Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelago and the fourth most popul

Lucile Guéguen
Nov 7, 20258 min read


Silicon Shield
The “Silicon Shield” theory suggests that Taiwan’s role in the global semiconductor supply chain acts as a deterrent against China’s aggression. The other side of the coin is the deep interdependence of all parties within the supply chain. The idea is simple: If Taiwan’s chip production were disrupted, the global economy would face catastrophic consequences. Such a disruption would force international powers, particularly the United States, to intervene to protect this vital

The Source
Nov 6, 20251 min read


Europe’s Dual-Use Dilemma: Balancing Trade with China and Tech-Security with Taiwan
For much of the past twenty years, Europe’s commercial ties with China have been straightforward: European machine tools, industrial software and high-end components found ready buyers in China’s vast manufacturing sector, while luxury goods makers enjoyed a fast-growing consumer base. Concerns about labour rights or geopolitics rarely slowed the flow of trade. That picture is now changing. A combination of export controls on “dual-use” technologies, which are products that c

Paula Thornton
Nov 5, 20256 min read


Mano Dura
Throughout the Western Hemisphere, states have experimented with many types of security policies; however, one stands out for its political popularity and the frequency with which it is employed - mano dura. Mano dura is defined by experts Lucía Dammert et al. as the stringent, hardline policies implemented by several Latin American governments to combat rampant gang violence and criminal activity. These strategies typically involve ramping up police and military presence, em

The Source
Nov 4, 20251 min read


From Mesoamerican Rituals to Security States
Abstract This article would like to explore the relationship between violence, power, and symbolism in Central America, looking from pre-Columbian rituals of blood and death to the contemporary dynamics of criminality and state politics. Building on the centrality of sacrifice in Mesoamerican traditions, it examines how Gangs & Cartels ritualize violence through history and aesthetics of death. In the last part, particular attention is given to El Salvador under President Nay

Alberto Vaccari
Oct 31, 20259 min read


Deterrence by Denial
The classic literature distinguishes between two fundamental approaches to deterrence. Deterrence by denial strategies seek to deter an action by making it infeasible or unlikely to succeed, thus denying a potential aggressor confidence in attaining its objectives—deploying sufficient local military forces to defeat an invasion, for example. At their extreme, these strategies can confront a potential aggressor with the risk of catastrophic loss. Deterrence by denial represent

The Source
Oct 31, 20251 min read
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