Fueling Power: How EACOP is Redrawing East Africa’s Geopolitical Map

Landlocked and often overlooked, Uganda is one of the world’s lowest-income countries. Yet, beneath its soil lies a resource with the potential to reshape its role within East Africa’s geopolitical landscape: oil. Since the discovery of commercially viable reserves in the Lake Albert basin (also known as the Albertine Graben) along the western border with the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2006, Uganda has emerged as a new player in oil exploration. The region holds an estimated 6.5 billion barrels of crude oil, with about 1.4 billion considered recoverable. This discovery laid the foundation for a major oil industry that could shape Uganda’s future for decades.

At the heart of this transformation is the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), a 1,443-kilometer project poised to export Ugandan oil through Tanzania to global markets. Estimated to cost around USD 5 billion, EACOP is set to become the world's longest-heated crude oil pipeline, carrying oil from inland fields to the port of Tanga on the Tanzanian coast. For a country historically constrained by export limitations, this project could open Uganda’s direct access to international markets. But how might this massive undertaking reshape East Africa’s economic and geopolitical landscape in the years ahead?

Ever since Uganda struck oil, the region has attracted wide international attention. Local companies, the state-owned entity Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) and the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), each hold a 15% stake in EACOP Limited, the company that owns and is building the pipeline. But behind EACOP are two global heavyweights: France and China. French energy TotalEnergies holds a 62% majority stake, while Chinese petroleum company China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC Group) plays a key role in Uganda’s upstream oil operations and holds an 8% stake. The involvement of these international players reflects more than just economic interest; it signals a new phase in East Africa’s strategic relevance, as global powers compete for influence in a region rich in resources, untapped markets, and future energy potential.

Uganda’s decision to route the East African Crude Oil Pipeline through Tanzania rather than Kenya marked a major geopolitical shift in East Africa. Initially, Uganda and Kenya had explored building a joint pipeline to the Kenyan port of Lamu. However, in 2016, Uganda opted for the Tanzanian route to Tanga, citing lower costs, fewer security concerns, and more favorable commercial terms. Uganda pivoted from a proposed Kenya route (UKCOP) to Tanzania’s EACOP partly to reward Tanzania and deepen ties between the nations. The move was seen as a diplomatic setback for Kenya and shifted the regional balance of power in Tanzania’s favor. The decision is especially striking given that Uganda has for years imported 90% of its fuel from Kenyan oil marketing companies, highlighting a deep economic interdependence between the two countries. While Kenya remains an important regional partner through the East African Community (EAC), its exclusion from EACOP underscored rising competition and diverging energy strategies among East African states.

Uganda's oil sector is expected to significantly boost economic growth. The East African Crude Oil Pipeline represents the largest single investment in both Uganda and Tanzania, having already secured USD 2 billion in global financing. As the project advances, further investments are expected to flow into Uganda’s oil sector. Moreover, according to a recent report, the International Monetary Fund projects Uganda’s growth could reach double digits once crude oil production begins, up from a projected 6.1% in 2024. EACOP is estimated to generate a total of USD 69.7 billion over its lifetime, with an average annual income of around USD 2.8 billion and production reaching up to 230,000 barrels per day. While Uganda’s production will remain far below that of Nigeria - Africa’s largest oil producer - the country is nonetheless set to join the ranks of established oil producers on the continent. In comparison with other top African oil producers, Gabon produced around 223,000 barrels per day, Ghana 175,000, and South Sudan 148,000 in 2023. Uganda’s output will then outpace various African oil-producing countries, placing it in the upper tier of African oil producers.

As a consequence, both Tanzania and Uganda are expected to experience significant local economic benefits. The EACOP project could contribute to job creation, increased local participation in the oil value chain, revenue generation for both governments, improved infrastructure and logistics, technology transfer, and the overall development of the corridor connecting the two countries. For instance, the EACOP project is expected to generate around 2,000 direct construction jobs in Uganda, along with indirect and induced employment, boosting household income and living standards.

Beyond economic interests, Uganda’s entry into the oil market provides new diplomatic leverage, allowing the country to strengthen ties with its neighbors as well as energy-importing nations, and negotiate more favorably with international investors and institutions. Uganda recently held discussions with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Sudan regarding access to the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. Since the oil-rich Albertine Graben spans Uganda and DRC, and given South Sudan’s interest in regional export routes, Uganda’s control of the pipeline positions it as a strategic gatekeeper for its neighbors’ oil exports. By potentially enabling both DRC and South Sudan to use EACOP, Uganda strengthens its role as a regional energy hub, enhancing its diplomatic influence and economic importance in East Africa’s petroleum infrastructure.

Although Uganda is not currently part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the country has expressed interest in joining and has taken steps toward becoming a member. However, Uganda’s entry has been delayed primarily because it has yet to begin exporting oil, which is a key requirement for admission. Once the EACOP facilities are operational and oil begins flowing, Uganda will be in a position to meet OPEC’s criteria for net exporters and formally apply for membership to become a member of OPEC, alongside Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. In the long term, joining OPEC would elevate Uganda’s role on the global stage, strengthen ties with major oil-producing nations, and enhance its bargaining power in international energy and trade negotiations.

However, production timelines have faced continual postponements since Ugandan authorities first began considering the export of crude oil via pipeline in the early 2010s. Although officials initially aimed to achieve “first oil” by 2020, the project has been repeatedly postponed due to hold‑ups in constructing the needed infrastructure. More recently, the EACOP project has faced financial obstacles driven by activist opposition, leading to further delays. Environmental defenders have strongly criticized the project due to its potential environmental harm, impact on local communities, and contribution to climate change. Notably, in 2023, NGOs filed a lawsuit in France to suspend EACOP under the duty of vigilance law, but it was dismissed for procedural issues. They later filed a separate ongoing civil case seeking compensation from TotalEnergies for human rights and environmental harms. As a consequence, multiple commercial banks have publicly withdrawn their support for the EACOP project. As Uganda edges closer to becoming a regional energy powerhouse, the tension between economic aspiration and environmental responsibility grows sharper, further delaying the start of oil flow through the EACOP.

The East African Crude Oil Pipeline stands at the intersection of opportunity and controversy. For Uganda and Tanzania, it symbolizes economic promise, energy independence, and a reshaped regional power dynamic. It has already drawn major international players and catalyzed new geopolitical alliances. Yet, EACOP also embodies the global tension between fossil fuel development and climate commitments. Whether Uganda becomes a success story of oil-led development or a cautionary tale will depend not only on the energy produced, but on how the country navigates the complex web of diplomacy, governance, and sustainability that surrounds this project.