The Arctic Passages: Taking Control of Future Trade Routes

Recent declarations by President Trump regarding the possibility of Greenland joining the United States have renewed interest in the strategic importance of this semi-autonomous territory. The combination of Greenland’s complex legal framework, comprising autonomous legislation, the Danish Constitution, and additional legal layers, together with its strategic geographic location, renders it particularly vulnerable. These factors make Greenland a focal point for competing interests over power and resources.

Among these interests, the “Northwest passage”, still a hypothetical route 50 years ago, and the “Northeast passage” above Russia, have become critical to control projected future trade flows. The melting of the ice now opens new trade routes that will be used to significantly reduce the travel time of goods, potentially leading to immense profit. Starting from that, control over Greenland means control over a future strategic node that will define tomorrow's trade flows, and therefore great power dynamics.

Questions surrounding the two Passages and the future of Arctic trade routes stem from conclusions drawn by several scientific organizations. Since the first satellite observations of the Arctic in the 1970s, a clear long-term trend has emerged: a sustained decline in sea ice extent, coupled with a progressively lower annual ice renewal rate. Recent simulations and climate models largely converge on the assessment that, given current trends in anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and the projected increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST), significant portions of the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free during late summer, particularly before September, by 2050. As a result, periods during which Arctic waters are largely ice-free are expected to become more frequent, opening new potential trade routes and intensifying interest among major powers seeking to accelerate exchanges and exert greater control over international flows. Seas that currently constitute the Northeast passage, the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi seas, are expected to carry a large portion of ice losses in late summer, while the Barents Sea is expected to face important ice loss in winter. Such data is important, as it signifies an upcoming larger openness of what is currently the shortest passage between Europe and Asia.

The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice has transformed what was once an impassable maritime frontier into a strategically consequential trade corridor. Russia, by virtue of its long Arctic coastline, has positioned the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an emerging alternative to traditional trade paths like the Suez Canal, offering potentially shorter transit times between East Asia and Europe. Driven by warming trends that lengthen navigable seasons, the NSR could significantly reduce shipping distances and costs. Yet these developments also complicate the global trade and security landscape. While the NSR offers commercial promise, logistical challenges remain: harsh weather, sparse port infrastructure, and unpredictable ice conditions impede reliable year-round navigation. Russia’s strategic focus on directing trade eastwards and strengthening Arctic economic corridors amplifies geopolitical competition in the High North, intersecting directly with broader great power dynamics. Critics argue that without robust international governance and investment in regional infrastructure, Arctic shipping may remain a supplementary, rather than dominant, route in global commerce.

Greenland’s proximity to both the Northwest Passage and trans-Arctic routes elevates its value as a potential hub for logistics, monitoring, and regional connectivity. Although Greenland itself does not directly control major sea lanes, its location and existing defense relationships, especially the U.S. presence at Thule Air Base, underscore its strategic utility. U.S. interest in Greenland is grounded not only in trade dynamics but also in Northern Hemisphere defense and early warning systems that monitor both maritime and military activity.

The opening of Arctic sea routes represents one of the most consequential shifts in global commerce and geopolitics of the 21st century. In this new Cold War, power is no longer measured by territorial conquest or ideological reach, but by the ability to secure strategic corridors. Global supply chains, trade routes, critical technologies, and resource flows have fused with national security, creating an integrated map of commerce and control.  President Trump captured this shift when he declared that the future will be defined by the capacity to protect commerce, territory, and resources - now a single interconnected battlefield. This strategic logic is not new: during the Second World War, the United States viewed Greenland as part of the Western Hemisphere’s defense system, a forward outpost of continental security rather than a colony. The modern revival of this thinking reaffirms that hemispheric defense and Arctic strategy are once again inseparable.

Co-authored by Amedeo Bizzotto and Alexandre Thiriet