Israel’s Strike on Iranian Nuclear Facilities: Another Regional War?

Disclaimer:

The currently available information regarding the ongoing escalations between Israel and Iran remains incomplete, with no single source or state being entirely clued into the rise of tensions and the direction in which events are headed. This report uses publicly available information from open sources to make an informed assessment of the situation and its key actors.

In the early hours of Friday, June 13th, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, marking the beginning of a longer military campaign and striking several targets across Iran, including nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and senior leadership figures in the Iranian regime. Alongside ongoing Israeli ceasefire violations in southern Lebanon and the continued campaign in Gaza, and strikes on Syria, this significant action against Iran signals a qualitative shift in Israeli foreign policy against Iran: a shift from pre-emption to regime-level assassinations and infrastructural degradation. Currently, several questions remain unanswered: Did Israel have American support? Will Iran leverage its regional proxies, drawing the Houthis and Hezbollah into the exchange? And most importantly, can the region sustain another war? By drawing on Iranian, Israeli, and international news channels, as well as academic commentary, I seek to answer these challenging questions.

The degradation of peace and security between the two states, Israel and Iran, should be viewed as a culmination of failed diplomatic endeavours, marked precisely by the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) after American withdrawal under President Donald Trump in 2018. While Europe attempted ‘to keep the JCPOA on life support,’ the undoing of this nuclear deal significantly eased the restrictions on nuclear and enriched uranium by Iran. However, Israel has been of the staunch belief since the early 1990s that Iran remains very capable and close to acquiring nuclear weapons – the question remains, why attack now? According to a confidential assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in of May 2025, Iran was said to possess over 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity, assessed as far above the level utilised for civilian purposes and closer to the weapon grade level, thus bringing them significantly closer to being able to build nuclear weapons. Consequently, the IAEA accused Iran of violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that it has remained legally bound to since 1970.

While Israel believes a nuclear-harbouring Iran poses an existential threat to it, it remains, at this time, unclear whether this escalation will mark a downturn in their perceived threat. The IAEA have confirmed that Israel’s strikes targeted several nuclear facilities in Iran, inclusive of more than 100 overall targets. Key sights such as the Natanz nuclear site were targeted, alongside six or more Iranian nationals who worked as nuclear scientists. Moreover, according to local media, Israeli strikes were not limited to nuclear plants and targeted several civilian structures in Tehran, including apartment complexes, resulting in dozens of civilian casualties and injuries. Currently, sources have confirmed the death of Mohammad Bagheri, the Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, Gholmali Rashid, a Commander, and Hossein Salami, a Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The strikes were conducted across Iran, ranging from Tehran to Hamedan, Kermanshah, Tabriz, and Isfahan, among others.

While President Trump has issued a warning to Iran, stating they must agree to a nuclear deal ‘before there is nothing left’, Iran launched over 100 drones at Israeli territory that are currently being intercepted by Israel and Jordanian forces. Simultaneously, Iran’s foreign minister declared that, as Israel’s main supporter, the US too will be held responsible for what Iran declares as an act of aggression by Israel. Nonetheless, Marco Rubio, the American Secretary of State, asserted that there was no American involvement in the Israeli offensive, which, if true, paints a bleak picture of Trump’s control of Netanyahu.

While Trump’s policies remain divergent, one consideration remains consistent: profit. With oil prices surging over 8% and potential risks emerging over supply, a likely outcome of Trump’s ongoing discussions may be a prioritisation of peace for profit at the cost of weakened Israeli-American ties. However far-fetched, the region remains already tumultuous, and increased offensives from Israel that continue to be condemned by Arab leaders as violations of international law may push Trump to reevaluate his ties to what is now becoming a pariah state in the Middle East.